SLM Corp: Private Student Lending Analysis

Earnings Preview Overview

Sallie Mae enters fourth quarter earnings with focus on loan origination trends, credit performance, and 2026 guidance.

Key Metrics to Watch

• Loan Originations: Consensus expects $2.7B in private education loan originations, up 5% YoY
• Net Interest Margin: NIM expected to remain above 5.3%
• Credit Quality: 90+ day delinquencies expected stable around 1.2%
• Charge-offs: Net charge-off rate expected near 2.0%

Market Context

The private student lending market continues to grow steadily as college costs increase and federal loan limits remain fixed. Sallie Mae’s market leadership provides scale advantages in underwriting, servicing, and distribution.

Competition remains rational with major banks focused on prime/super-prime segments. Alternative lenders have not significantly disrupted the market.

Earnings Expectations

Consensus expects EPS of $1.45-$1.55 for Q4. Key sensitivities include origination volume, provision for credit losses, and operating expense trends.

Guidance Outlook

Management will likely provide 2026 guidance including origination expectations, NIM outlook, and credit loss assumptions. Any changes to long-term ROE targets would be noteworthy.

Potential Catalysts

• Origination guidance above consensus expectations
• Credit quality trends better than feared
• Capital return announcements (buyback, special dividend)
• Strategic initiatives in adjacent products

Investment Considerations

Sallie Mae offers exposure to education finance with attractive returns. The stock trades at approximately 6x earnings with a 2%+ dividend yield. Credit cycle performance remains the key variable.